ABC — AlphaBetaCigma

ABC starts from an uncomfortable observation: on a prediction market, a wallet losing money badly and publicly may not be a bad trader. Wallet activity is public, copytrading exists, liquidity is thin, and a visible trade changes how everyone else reads the market — which means a loss can be worth buying. Feed exit liquidity to a confederate, manufacture volume, shape sentiment, and a coordinated cluster profits on the other side.

The asymmetry is the interesting part. Winning wallets are deliberately obscured — edge buried under mixed-in losses and split across clusters. The sacrificial losers are sloppier and easier to follow, because nobody expects them to be worth anything. So the sharper question the site sets out to answer is whether countertrading the right loser would beat copytrading any visible winner.

How it separates engineered losers from ordinary bad ones

• Systematic loss — losing in a pattern rather than losing at random.
• Unnatural timing — entries and exits that line up with something other than information.
• Wallet clusters — losses that keep arriving next to the same counterparties.
• Exit liquidity — being reliably on the wrong side of somebody else's unwind.
• Manufactured sentiment — trades whose visible effect on the book outlives their size.
• The inversion test — the only one that settles it: does the mirror of the loser's book still make money once realistic delay and slippage are charged against it?

Small, honest, fits on one box

The engineering constraints were set before the research started and are part of the argument. Raw market data lands as Parquet and is queried with DuckDB — a single embedded analytical file, no database server. A FastAPI service on localhost answers the explorer's queries and Apache reverse-proxies /api/* to it; systemd keeps it alive. The whole thing lives inside a five-gigabyte disk budget, acquires data in deliberate one-shot runs rather than on a cron, ships every raster as WebP, and holds a Lighthouse score of 90+ across performance, accessibility, best practices and SEO.

What it is not

There is no account system, no admin, no automated ingestion, and no trading interface anywhere in it — the site's own disclaimer is blunt about that. The queries in the explorer are pre-registered so the analysis can't quietly become a fishing expedition, and the conclusions are allowed to be negative.